New article by Jeroen Struben published in System Dynamics Review.
It is critical to understand the impact of distinct interventions on the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. I develop a behavioral dynamic epidemic model for multifaceted policy analysis comprising endogenous virus transmission (from severe or mild/asymptomatic cases), social contacts, and case testing and reporting. Calibration of the system dynamics model to the ongoing outbreak (31 December 2019–15 May 2020) using multiple time series data (reported cases and deaths, performed tests, and social interaction proxies) from six countries (South Korea, Germany, Italy, France, Sweden, and the United States) informs an explanatory analysis of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies. Specifically, I demonstrate, first, how timing and efforts of testing‐capacity expansion and social‐contact reduction interplay to affect outbreak dynamics and can explain a large share of cross‐country variation in outbreak pathways. Second, absent at‐scale availability of pharmaceutical solutions, postpeak social contacts must remain well below prepandemic values. Third, proactive (targeted) interventions, when complementing general deconfinement readiness, can considerably increase admissible postpeak social contacts.
Jeroen Struben. Forthcoming. The coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) pandemic: simulation‐based assessment of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies, System Dynamics Review, first published 24 September 2020: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sdr.1660